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Published By Mitch Ratcliffe & Jake Ludington

A Case for the Mariners Keeping Cliff Lee

Whith the July 31 trade deadline looming, Cliff Lee might only wear a Mariners uniform for another 3-4 starts. That doesn't need to be the case, especially if the Mariners are looking to build a winning team into the future.

The Mariners can afford to keep Cliff Lee in the rotation for the next several years and get some help in the lineup, if they are willing to get creative. According to Cot's, opening day payroll came in at just over $91 million, some of that goes away next year and even more of it gets unloaded after 2011. Of the $71.5 million the M's are committed to (plus about $10 million for arbitration eligible players), $6.5 of it is for Carlos Silva and Yuniesky Betancourt, with another $13 million is for Milton Bradley. I can't imagine any of that salary being around in 2012.

Cliff Lee will be priced in the same range as other ace starters, like C.C. Sabathia ($24.5 million), Roy Halladay ($20 million), and the M's own Felix Hernandez ($19.2 million). Let's assume he won't cost as much as Sabathia and goes for $20 million a year. At almost 32, he's not likely to get more than 4 years from anyone because he could be amazing until he's 40 or he could start having health problems by the time he's 35. So doing the math for 2011, a $20 million Cliff Lee puts known payroll plus Lee at $101.5 million.

The Mariners will need to spend some money to upgrade a few positions. First base and catcher are gaping holes. Branyan is a temporary fix at first and there's no helping the Rob Johnson situation behind the plate. Assume $6 million for a decent first baseman and another $3 million for a catcher. Trading Aardsma might help with either of those. There's good reason to think we should be looking for at least two more relievers. Cliff Lee and Felix pitching complete games is an indication that there's no confidence in the bullpen. And utlitity players look a little sparse, although Josh Wilson may be a legit choice in the infield, with no one available to backup the Saunders/Guttierez/Ichiro outfield. Assume another $5 million for a mix of utility both on the field and in the bullpen. That's an additional $14 million, putting the payroll at about $115 with Cliff Lee. Minus the dead weight from Silva, that's really a $110 payroll for 2011.

A 2011 rotation with Cliff Lee should win an easy 95 games with a batting order that looks anything close to the one going into the All Star break. What could this team look like:

Starting Rotation

RH - Felix Hernandex
LH - Cliff Lee
LH - Jason Vargas
RH - Doug Fister
LH - Ryan Roland-Smith

Outfield

RF - Ichiro Suzuki
CF - Franklin Guttierez
LF - Michael Saunders
OF - ?
OF - ?

Infield

1B - ?
2B - Chone Figgins
SS - Jack Wilson
3B - Jose Lopez
IN - Dustin Ackley
IN - Josh Wilson

Catcher

C - ?
C - ?

DH - Milton Bradley

Relief Pitchers

RP - David Aardsma
RP - Brandon League
RP - Shawn Kelley
RP - ?
RP - ?

The thing that makes the lineup interesting is that Figgins could shift back to third some of the time if Ackley is ready in the spring, with Lopez sharing the DH role with Bradley for some games and Bradley rotating into left field. The $115 million price tag for this team is slightly less than the 2008 Mariners and slightly more than the 2007 Mariners. If the Mariners are rebuilding this year, finding a way to keep Cliff Lee makes more sense than trading for a bat that likely won't stay long term.

Comments (3) Read through and enter the discussion with the form at the end
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